Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 0.007864 0.008867 0.009951 0.011211 0.012634 0.014193 0.016031
2026-01-04 0.006336 0.007730 0.009361 0.011412 0.013925 0.016909 0.020727
2026-01-11 0.005514 0.007103 0.009067 0.011676 0.015060 0.019310 0.025070
2026-01-18 0.004798 0.006461 0.008608 0.011593 0.015646 0.020977 0.028549
2026-01-25 0.004277 0.005983 0.008273 0.011583 0.016260 0.022663 0.032142
2026-02-01 0.003802 0.005501 0.007863 0.011396 0.016571 0.023913 0.035189
2026-02-08 0.003484 0.005200 0.007661 0.011461 0.017215 0.025650 0.039052
2026-02-15 0.003172 0.004871 0.007379 0.011367 0.017591 0.026998 0.042420
2026-02-22 0.002987 0.004712 0.007328 0.011607 0.018477 0.029164 0.047215
2026-03-01 0.002684 0.004342 0.006918 0.011239 0.018365 0.029749 0.049516
2026-03-08 0.002453 0.004062 0.006622 0.011024 0.018467 0.030664 0.052406
2026-03-15 0.002232 0.003778 0.006296 0.010725 0.018396 0.031272 0.054807
2026-03-22 0.002154 0.003732 0.006361 0.011096 0.019503 0.033972 0.061117
2026-03-29 0.002052 0.003635 0.006331 0.011302 0.020340 0.036276 0.066937
2026-04-05 0.001969 0.003562 0.006336 0.011563 0.021292 0.038851 0.073469
2026-04-12 0.001839 0.003395 0.006160 0.011481 0.021603 0.040280 0.077966
2026-04-19 0.001732 0.003260 0.006030 0.011471 0.022042 0.041973 0.083104
2026-04-26 0.001611 0.003088 0.005818 0.011286 0.022127 0.042994 0.086997
2026-05-03 0.001532 0.002992 0.005740 0.011351 0.022702 0.045000 0.093038
2026-05-10 0.001441 0.002863 0.005589 0.011258 0.022950 0.046374 0.097889
2026-05-17 0.001394 0.002820 0.005602 0.011494 0.023886 0.049201 0.106038
2026-05-24 0.001285 0.002642 0.005332 0.011131 0.023544 0.049369 0.108472
2026-05-31 0.001201 0.002508 0.005143 0.010918 0.023500 0.050152 0.112313